Opinion: Patek Philippe 1518’s new record auction sales signal more than just rising prices

When a Patek Philippe 1518 sells at auction for US$17.6 million, it’s worth asking: what does this say about where collectors are—and where they’re headed?

The auction hammer fell at CHF14 million this November, and with it came the inevitable headlines: another record, another eye-watering sum, another Patek Philippe reference 1518 in stainless steel proving its supremacy. At approximately US$17.6 million (HK$171 million), Phillips had just sold the most expensive vintage Patek Philippe wristwatch ever auctioned—the very first known steel example of a watch introduced in 1941 as the world’s first series-produced perpetual calendar chronograph.

But here’s what matters more than the number itself: this sale, alongside a constellation of other results from Geneva’s recent auction season, suggests the luxury watch and jewellery market has finally moved beyond its adolescent phase of breathless hype and into something more interesting—a mature, analytically-driven collector landscape that values nuance as much as it does rarity.

Yet lurking beneath the celebratory press releases is a question collectors increasingly whisper about: at what point does rarity become a liability rather than an asset? When a watch is one of only four known examples to survive over eight decades, how does one verify its authenticity with confidence? The murmurs surrounding this particular 1518—speculation about restoration, questions about originality—highlight a tension the market hasn’t fully resolved. Are we paying US$17.6 million for a precious object, or for the idea of a precious object?

Consider the fundamentals that make the steel 1518 the collector’s Holy Grail. Of just 281 pieces produced—mostly in yellow gold, fewer than 60 in pink gold—only four were crafted in stainless steel. The paradox is irresistible: an ultra-complicated movement, representing a groundbreaking technical milestone that established Patek Philippe’s legacy in complicated wristwatches, housed in a ‘humble’ material traditionally reserved for utilitarian tool watches. That tension between high complication and modest casing is precisely what collectors have learned to prize. This November sale surpassed even the previous steel 1518 record Phillips set in 2016 at CHF 11 million (around US$11.1 million), proving that the market’s appreciation for such contradictions has only deepened.

Above Patek Philippe 1518 which sold this November for US$17.6 million (Photo: courtesy of Phillips watches)

Patek Philippe 1518 which sold this November for US$17.6 million (Photo: courtesy of Phillips watches)

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But here’s the uncomfortable truth: extreme rarity creates an authentication vacuum. When only four examples exist, there’s no statistically meaningful population against which to compare details. Every idiosyncrasy becomes either “proof of uniqueness” or “evidence of restoration,” depending on who’s making the argument. Unlike more common references where collectors can cross-reference dozens or hundreds of examples to establish what’s “correct,” the steel 1518 exists in a category so rare that expertise itself becomes somewhat speculative.

Does this make the US$17.6 million purchase overrated? Not necessarily—but it does raise profound questions about what we’re actually valuing. If restoration is confirmed (and many in the collecting community believe it is), then buyers aren’t acquiring an untouched artefact but rather a carefully curated representation of what such a watch might have looked like. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that—museums restore paintings, after all—but it demands a different valuation framework. Are we comfortable with auction records being set by pieces whose originality remains debatable?

The counterargument, of course, is that at this level of rarity, perfect originality is a fantasy. An 84-year-old watch that’s been worn, serviced and survived through decades will inevitably bear the marks of its journey. Perhaps the more sophisticated collector understands this and values the watch not for mythical perfection but for its historical significance and the role it played in horological evolution. The 1518, after all, wasn’t just another watch—it was the pioneering series-produced perpetual calendar chronograph that set the foundation for everything that followed.

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Above ‘The Vanderbilt Sapphire’, Tiffany & Co sapphire and diamond brooch from the early 20th century (Photo: courtesy of Phillips Jewels)

‘The Vanderbilt Sapphire’, Tiffany & Co sapphire and diamond brooch from the early 20th century (Photo: courtesy of Phillips Jewels)

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Yet focusing solely on nine-figure watch sales misses the broader transformation underway. Look at Phillips’ “The Geneva Jewels Auction: V,” where the Vanderbilt Family Jewels collection achieved CHF 3.43 million (US$4.25 million, HK$41.6 million)—four times its low estimate. What drove that result wasn’t just the Tiffany & Co and Cartier names signed onto these pieces, but something collectors are increasingly demanding: provenance and narrative. Period jewels with distinguished histories and exquisite craftsmanship are commanding renewed passion, signalling that today’s buyers want more than objects—they want stories they can authenticate and defend.

Christie’s Geneva Luxury Week in November 2025 reinforces this evolution. Sales exceeded CHF 82 million (US$102.5 million, HK$990 million), marking a 24 per cent year-on-year increase. The “Mellon Blue” vivid blue diamond fetched CHF 20.5 million (US$25.6 million), affirming that exceptional coloured stones retain their magnetic pull. But perhaps the most telling statistic reported by Christie’s came from the watch segment: a 99 per cent sell-through rate accompanied by a demographic shift that should make traditionalists sit up—Millennials and Gen Z accounted for 34 per cent of buyers.

This is where the market’s new rhythm becomes unmistakable. Digital platforms have democratised access, yes, but more importantly, they’ve broadened the conversation. While blue-chip pieces like the steel 1518 remain the pinnacle—and likely always will—today’s collectors are simultaneously exploring independent watchmaking, seeking out meaningful narratives about heritage and craftsmanship and increasingly weighing sustainability in their purchasing decisions.

The cynical interpretation is that younger buyers with newfound wealth are simply driving prices higher. The more sophisticated reading is that the market has developed layers it previously lacked. The same auction houses can move a US$17.6 million Patek Philippe 1518 and a historically significant jewel collection at four times estimate because collectors have learned to evaluate multiple dimensions of value simultaneously.

What emerges is a market that celebrates provenance and history—the 1518’s perpetual calendar chronograph remains the standard by which horological achievement is measured—while embracing a wider, more engaged, and genuinely diverse collector community. The paradox of the Patek Philippe 1518 in steel has become a metaphor for the market itself: extraordinary complication in an unexpectedly inclusive package.

Above The Mellon Blue (Photo: courtesy of Christie’s)

The Mellon Blue (Photo: courtesy of Christie’s)

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This evolution promises something the auction world has long needed: sustainability not through artificial scarcity or manufactured hype, but through genuine depth of knowledge and breadth of participation.

The question isn’t whether the auction market for high-end watches and jewellery has found its new rhythm. It’s whether participants—from auction houses to seasoned collectors—are prepared to nurture this more sophisticated, more diverse marketplace rather than retreating to the comfort of headline-chasing record sales. When Christie’s reports that 34 per cent of watch buyers at their Geneva auctions come from generations once dismissed as “not serious collectors,” and when period jewels can quadruple estimates based on provenance rather than just carat weight, the market has demonstrably found a rhythm worth sustaining. The Patek Philippe 1518 will always make news. But the real story is what's happening in the broader ecosystem around it.

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Amrita Katara

Regional Editor, Watches and Jewellery, Tatler Hong Kong

Amrita Katara, regional editor watches and jewellery Tatler Asia

As the Regional Editor for Watches and Jewellery and Editorial Content Lead for Tatler GMT, Amrita Katara specialises in luxury watch and jewellery coverage across Asia, with expertise in editorial strategy, feature writing and interviews with industry leaders. Her past roles span luxury lifestyle media and client partnerships. Based in Mumbai, Amrita’s work bridges global trends and Asian market insights.

Opinion: Patek Philippe 1518’s new record sales hint at more than just rising prices