Leading geologist Mahar Lagmay warns that outdated earthquake drills like “duck, cover, and hold” may not save lives when “The Big One” strikes (Photo: Canva)
Cover Leading geologist Mahar Lagmay warns that outdated earthquake drills like “duck, cover and hold” may not save lives when “The Big One” strikes (Photo: Canva)
Leading geologist Mahar Lagmay warns that outdated earthquake drills like “duck, cover, and hold” may not save lives when “The Big One” strikes (Photo: Canva)

With “The Big One” predicted to strike Metro Manila in our lifetime, Mahar Lagmay, Filipino geologist and Project Noah executive director, dismantles a dangerous myth: that surviving an earthquake is just about ducking for cover

On January 1, 2024, my Japanese friend, Eizo Yamaguchi, invited us to celebrate New Year’s Day at his house in the suburbs of Nagoya, Japan. He prepared a nabemono hotpot dish with freshly picked vegetables, enoki mushrooms and thinly sliced Kobe Beef. It was a simple communal dish, but my family adored it. I could tell because they kept saying “Oishii” throughout the meal.  After giving us Meiji chocolates for dessert, he extended an invitation to visit his grandchildren residing in a nearby condominium, which we happily accepted.

We reached his daughter’s condo at approximately 3.30pm, where we met his son-in-law, wife and two grandchildren engrossed in a Nintendo Switch game. The kids had a pet axolotl, a type of salamander called the Mexican Walking Fish. Curious, I approached the fish tank to examine the odd creature, which seemed to wear a constant smile. My curiosity was piqued, and I decided to look up axolotl on Google and learned that it could regenerate its body parts! I also found the Mexican Axolotl Optimisation-tuned (MAO) system, which utilises Internet of Things (IoT) sensors to precisely identify seismic activity. The system provides an early warning just seconds before an earthquake strikes, aimed at minimising potential damage. That’s cool, I thought to myself.

Immediately after learning about axolotls, I got an urgent message on my cellphone that said:

EMERGENCY ALERT Earthquake Early Warning: Strong shaking is expected soon. Stay calm and seek shelter nearby (Japan Meteorological Agency).”

At that moment, I realised there wasn’t enough time to rush down to the ground from the seventh floor and find an open space. Roughly 20 seconds later, I felt the building tremble and noticed the water in the fish tank sloshing back and forth. My coffee cup mirrored the movement, leading me to imagine a swimming pool atop the condominium, creating a waterfall that I would see from our room’s window.

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As a renowned Filipino geologist and a key figure in disaster management, Mahar Lagmay has been known for his leadership in Project NOAH or Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards, the country’s premier disaster prevention programme (Photo: JV Rabano)
Above As a renowned Filipino geologist and a key figure in disaster management, Mahar Lagmay has been known for his leadership in Project NOAH or Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards, the country’s premier disaster prevention programme (Photo: JV Rabano)
As a renowned Filipino geologist and a key figure in disaster management, Mahar Lagmay has been known for his leadership in Project NOAH or Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards, the country’s premier disaster prevention programme (Photo: JV Rabano)

Unbothered

Frightened and anxious about the worst possible outcome, I attempted to remain composed. Uncertain of the earthquake’s magnitude and its point of origin, I could only guess that the shaking would last anywhere from 30 seconds to as long as two minutes. Earthquakes typically last that long, and during this time, individuals are advised to take shelter under a sturdy table to shield themselves from falling debris. We’ve also been told that once the shaking subsides, everyone must gather outside in an orderly manner until the building manager announces that it is safe to return.

Throughout the ordeal, I noticed that Eizo remained unbothered. He even crossed his legs while we discussed the ongoing earthquake. “Walang hiya, dumekwatro pa itong Hapon na ito [The nerve of this Japanese guy to even cross his legs],” I said to myself. His body language reassured everyone though, as if conveying that there was nothing to fear. He probably knew that the building, being newly constructed, adhered strictly to the Japanese Building Code, which required buildings to endure severe ground shaking. Perhaps he was confident that there were no shortcuts or under-the-table deals during the construction process. He might have even known that the building was equipped with seismic dampers designed to reduce vibrations and damage during earthquakes.

Major vs great earthquakes

The earthquake we faced was the most lethal in Japan in the past 13 years. It was a magnitude 7.5 temblor, classified as a “major earthquake.” Typically, there are about 10 to 15 earthquakes of this category,  and they are known to inflict serious damage across large areas. In contrast, the devastating earthquake of 2011 in Japan is of a different class. Called a “great earthquake,” it measured a magnitude of 9.1, which resulted in far greater impacts. Such seismic events are rare, taking place globally only once every year or two. When they do occur,  they destroy communities close to the epicentre. Unfortunately, the 2011 Japan earthquake originated from the Pacific Ocean to the east of Sendai and triggered tsunamis that claimed 19,759 lives. It also led to the catastrophic Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, which involved the release of radioactive water into the ocean.

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Earthquake Magnitude Scale (Source: Michigan Technological University)
Above Earthquake Magnitude Scale (Source: Michigan Technological University)
Earthquake Magnitude Scale (Source: Michigan Technological University)

The mainshock in the Noto Peninsula resulted in earthquake hazards that caused a total of 607 deaths, considerably less than the 2011 Great Sendai Earthquake yet still tragic. Of this number, 228 deaths were directly linked to ground shaking, primarily due to collapsed homes, many of which were over 45 years old and built before the introduction of earthquake-resistant building standards in 1981. Additionally, there were 25 recorded deaths attributed to several of the more than 1,000 landslides triggered by the earthquake, with another two dying from tsunamis that reached heights of approximately five metres. Four additional deaths occurred due to fires in densely populated regions.

Earthquakes do not kill, buildings do

“Earthquakes do not kill, it’s the associated hazards that do.” When you find yourself in an open field during an earthquake, the worst that might happen is to feel a bit dizzy. The potentially fatal hazards linked to earthquakes include: 1) ground rupture; 2) ground shaking; 3) ground subsidence; 4) liquefaction; 5) landslides; 6) tsunami and 7) fire.

By adequately preparing for these seven earthquake hazards, we can greatly reduce the over 30,000 deaths that could occur within the first five minutes of the anticipated “Big One,” a major earthquake which could hit Metro Manila at any time when the West Marikina Valley Fault ruptures. This fault last moved approximately 350 years ago and is expected to produce a powerful magnitude 7.2 earthquake with a felt intensity of VIII in Metro Manila. This scenario can violently shake the metropolis and force people to kneel on all fours, leaving them with scraped palms and bleeding knees.

Related: Secretary Toni Loyzaga’s bold vision for disaster preparedness

Adhering strictly to building codes and avoiding the construction of houses or buildings on active fault lines are essential measures to protect against the first four earthquake hazards. Consulting landslide and tsunami hazard maps available on government websites can guide individuals to safe locations in the event of these disasters. Fire hazards can be mitigated by installing valves that automatically shut off gas lines. Sadly, thousands of self-constructed buildings, some reaching up to five or even six stories, exist in various informal settlements throughout Metro Manila, often disregarding building regulations. Moreover, the majority of residents do not take the initiative to review the landslide and tsunami hazard maps for their areas, which are crucial life-saving actions we can undertake before the “Big One” happens.

Earthquake early warning system

The use of technologies in developed countries, such as the advanced early warning system of Japan which delivered an emergency alert about 20 seconds before we felt the New Year’s Day earthquake, can be useful to mitigate loss of lives. It may not sound much lead time but it is still precious in matters of life and death. It provides sufficient opportunity to evade danger, particularly when one is situated near an open space on the ground just before an earthquake. Research indicates that a three-second early warning can decrease death and injury rates by 14 per cent, a 10-second advanced warning by 39 per cent, and a 20-second warning could result in a 63 per cent reduction in injuries.

The devastating Zambales earthquake in 2019 took approximately 15 seconds to reach Metro Manila, whereas the Abra earthquake in 2023 took over a minute. From these examples, it can be inferred that the fatal Ruby Tower earthquake of 1968, which originated in Casiguran, Aurora, likely took at least 45 seconds to reach Manila. Nowadays, mobile alerts can provide warnings before a deadly earthquake occurs—if the epicentre is sufficiently distant. However, the official alerts we received during recent seismic activities near Metro Manila have arrived anywhere from 10 minutes to more than three hours after the event.

Read more: 5 most shocking earthquakes in the Philippines throughout the years

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The collapse of the Ruby Tower during the 1968 Caiguran, Aurora earthquake killed 268 and injured 260 people (Photo: Dennis Villegas)
Above The collapse of the Ruby Tower during the 1968 Caiguran, Aurora earthquake killed 268 and injured 260 people (Photo: Dennis Villegas)
The collapse of the Ruby Tower during the 1968 Caiguran, Aurora earthquake killed 268 and injured 260 people (Photo: Dennis Villegas)

Improving our World Risk Index ranking

Additional advanced research initiatives can assist us in enhancing our resilience to earthquakes. One such initiative aims to assess a building’s integrity by ensuring it aligns with the National Building Code, facilitated by earthquake recording instruments that measure the building’s vibration period both before and during an earthquake. Another initiative involves predicting potential earthquake locations in a region through stress transfer calculations. Hopefully, these efforts can be integrated into our strategies for disaster risk reduction.

Japanese people face similar natural hazards as we do. They encounter volcanic and earthquake hazards akin to those in the Philippines, as both countries lie within the Pacific Ring of Fire—a region surrounding the Pacific Ocean known for its many active volcanoes and significant seismic activity. Additionally, both Japan and the Philippines are situated in the Pacific typhoon belt, leading to experiences of floods, landslides triggered by rain and storm surges. However, Japan holds the 24th position in the World Risk Index, whereas the Philippines has been ranked number one for the third consecutive year. What strategies are they implementing that we are not?

Lessening our vulnerability

Japan possesses considerable wealth, while we do not. They have more resources to prepare, whereas we lack them. Nevertheless, technological advancements offer accessible and affordable solutions to help close the wealth and vulnerability gaps. The Philippine government allocates over PHP 100 billion (USD$ 1.75 billion) annually for disaster mitigation. Therefore, it should easily be able to invest in cost-effective technologies and implement international best practices to enhance nationwide strategies and minimise disaster risks from any natural hazard.

For example, with a budget of half a billion pesos, we can densify our network of seismometers using more affordable technologies. Combining it with crowdsourced efforts, we can easily replicate the same earthquake emergency alert system that we saw in action on the first day of 2024. If we allocate a few more billion pesos, we can update our manually drawn flood susceptibility maps into detailed computer-simulated flood hazard maps that meet the standards of developed nations and even insurance companies. There are numerous innovative and empowering methods to bolster our disaster risk reduction efforts. Most importantly, we already possess the technical capabilities necessary to implement them.

Regrettably, however, we have yet to evolve and overcome the apprehensions of disrupting the status quo, a shift in strategy way beyond “duck, cover and hold”.

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